Using intelligence this way certainly helps the US bolster international support for Ukraine. But it also raises questions about the perils involved...
What to make of US intelligence assessments about China |
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A year after citing intelligence information to correctly predict Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the US is using a similar technique to try and disrupt a strengthening bond between Moscow and Beijing: Top US officials spent the last week warning that China is considering providing lethal aid to President Vladimir Putin, accusations that sparked fury in Beijing -- which denies it -- and worsened already rock-bottom relations with the US.
The claims are based on US intelligence assessments that the United States has not made public. CIA Director Bill Burns said Sunday that he didn't believe China had made a final decision or that any lethal equipment had been shipped but that President Joe Biden believed he needed to put Beijing on notice. The aim is to "deter" China, "because it would be a very risky and unwise bet," Burns said on CBS News. US warnings about the possible next big escalation of the Ukraine war were echoed last week by top NATO and European officials, in another example of the reenergized Western alliance.
Using intelligence this way certainly helps the US bolster international support for Ukraine. But it also raises questions about the perils involved whenever politics and the intelligence world intersect, especially on grave national security questions. US intelligence assessments don't always get it right: Washington did not foresee the failure of Putin's forces to blitzkrieg their way to Kyiv, and you only have to go back 20 years to see how cherry-picked intelligence can really lead presidents astray -- with the notorious case of the Iraq War.
It is in the nature of the intelligence world that things are kept secret. There's no sign that the Biden administration is being untruthful. But the US accusation also requires the public at home and abroad to take a lot on trust. Those outside the clandestine world cannot make their own judgment on the quality of the intelligence. We also cannot evaluate whether officials are drawing correct conclusions from it or are merely highlighting aspects that make their political case.
Beijing says it is a neutral party, and put out a proposal for a peace settlement last week. However it refuses to condemn Russia's invasion, amplifying the Kremlin's view of the war by blaming the West for Putin's invasion. China accuses the US of being the one "adding fuel to the fire" by sending billions of dollars worth of weapons into the conflict -- though leaders in Beijing probably don't mind seeing US resources and military reserve stocks poured into Ukraine rather than into the Pacific.
China may prefer to see Russia win and the West get burned, but Beijing almost always sees big geopolitical questions through the prism of its own national interests and building tensions with Washington. That reality offers one reason why China might be unwilling to bear the costs of materially helping Russia's war. Still, if Beijing concludes that harming US aims in Ukraine is now in its interests, or wants to show up US threats, it could find a rationale for going ahead.
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'Some of our commentators were endorsing it' |
Murdoch acknowledged Fox hosts' promotion of 2020 election lies during a deposition taken by Dominion Voting Systems, which was made public in a legal filing on Monday as part of Dominion's $1.6 billion lawsuit against Fox News. Read part of the transcript below: Q: You are aware now that Fox did more than simply host these guests and give them a platform; correct? Murdoch: I think you've shown me some material in support of that. Q: In fact, you are now aware that Fox endorsed at times this false notion of a stolen election? Murdoch: Not Fox, No. Not Fox. But maybe Lou Dobbs, maybe Maria, as commentators. Q: We went through Fox hosts Maria Bartiromo, yes? Murdoch: Yes. C'mon Q: Fox host Jeanine Pirro? Murdoch: I think so. Q: Fox Business host Lou Dobbs? Murdoch: Oh, a lot. Q: Fox host Sean Hannity? Murdoch: A bit. Q: All were in that document; correct? Murdoch: Yes, they were. Q: About Fox endorsing the narrative of a stolen election; correct? Murdoch: No. Some of our commentators were endorsing it. Q: About their endorsement of a stolen election? Murdoch: Yes. They endorsed. |
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Rising star Republican Ron DeSantis is going after the Magic Kingdom in a move that shows just how ruthless he is wiling to be in using his power as Florida governor to boost his potential 2024 White House bid.
DeSantis showed up outside Walt Disney World to sign a new law that gives the state control of a special tax district that gave the global entertainment giant a high degree of autonomy.
"Today, the corporate kingdom finally comes to an end," DeSantis said Monday at a Reedy Creek fire station in Lake Buena Vista, Florida. "There's a new sheriff in town and accountability will be the order of the day."
From now on, a new board that DeSantis has staffed with high-powered Republican supporters and donors will govern the district. The takeover is the culmination of a showdown with Disney that started when the firm voiced opposition to new restrictions introduced by DeSantis on how sexual orientation, gender identity and LGBTQ+ issues are discussed in the classroom.
For a politician who styles himself and his state as the epitome of freedom, DeSantis is using power in ways that hardly fit with the traditional conservative vision of limited government. But his actions will delight national grassroots Republicans that he needs to win a GOP presidential primary.
And former President Donald Trump can only look on and fume at all the attention that he's getting. |
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