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Simone McCarthy

From a lunar launch to the financial crunch: here's what we're watching in 2024

If 2023 was the year that China reemerged from the isolation and restraint of its Covid-19 controls, 2024 may show what the country's new normal looks like now the dust has settled.

Crowds rang in the year by counting down and celebrating in city centers, but with few pyrotechnics amid fireworks bans in many areas and some official shows cancelled due to air pollution.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping sought to buoy the national mood in his annual address, praising achievements in 2023 and telling the nation they move into the new year with "full confidence in the future."

But the next 12 months will test how Xi and his officials grapple with deep-seated economic issues, handle fragile relationships with Western powers and attempt to advance their drive to make the country a tech powerhouse and geopolitical leader.

It also marks an important milestone in Communist China's history – the 75th anniversary of the country's founding – which the government is sure to mark with fanfare.

"We will ... further enhance people's confidence in development, promote vibrant development of the economy, and redouble efforts to boost education, advance science and technology and cultivate talents," Xi pledged in his speech Sunday.

He also acknowledged, in a brief, rare admission, that "some enterprises had a tough time" and "some people had difficulty finding jobs and meeting basic needs," saying these issues remain at the "forefront" of his mind.

Analysts in 2024 will be observing how Xi and his officials act to address those concerns. They'll also be looking at whether Beijing can win back the confidence of disillusioned foreign firms and how skillfully it navigates an increasingly prominent role on the global stage complicated by multiple conflicts.

Many in the country of 1.4 billion will be hoping 2024 brings a stronger post-pandemic economy recovery than the previous year, when a sense of social inequality, shrinking opportunities and unemployment have left parts of the population – especially the young – feeling frustrated, hopeless or ready to shake off societal expectations of marriage and children.

Here's what CNN's Meanwhile in China will be watching in 2024:

Economic outlook

Many of the economic headwinds that buffeted China in 2023 are likely to blow well into 2024.

The thorniest and most pressing of these issues are deflation, spiraling local government debt, high youth unemployment and a property sector crisis that's spilling into the broader economy.

To address these problems, the central government has pledged greater focus on economic growth and fiscal and monetary policy support for 2024.

Still, analysts say an already slowing economy could decelerate further this year. The World Bank last month also forecast a slide of China's annual GDP growth from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.5% in 2024 and 4.3% in 2025.

But such a slowdown is not unexpected, even without the shock impact of years of pandemic controls.

China's economy is transitioning from the gangbusters growth of the early century and now faces the challenge of switching to so-called "high-quality development," rather than solely focusing on headline numbers.

This means China aims to evolve from a manufacturing-driven economy to a more consumption-driven model – but how well it makes that change is the big question.

An escalating tech war with the United States has dealt a blow to Beijing's high-tech chipmaking ambitions, but some analysts argue it could also push Chinese firms and researchers toward their own advances. Last year, telecoms giant Huawei finally released its new Mate 60 smartphone series after US export controls sent it back to the drawing board on core technology.

China-linked retailers may also continue their international rise, after Pinduoduo's sister shopping platform Temu topped some app download charts in 2023.

And its homegrown generative AI chatbots, like GPT-4 rival ERNIE, are expected to disrupt how people work.

Young people are also set to fuel the on going rise of smart-home gadgets and pre-cooked meals, dubbed by some analysts as the "lazy economy."

Meanwhile, the world's top renewable energy producer is poised to further expand its role exporting related tech – a growth area as more than 120 countries last month pledged to triple renewable energy capacity by 2030.

That said, there are also hurdles: European Union officials recently launched an investigation into China's soaring electric vehicle exports, while the US announced new regulations that aim to keep Chinese batteries out of cars there, amid concerns about fair competition and secure supply chains.

China, also the world's top coal consumer and greenhouse gas emitter, will in 2024 begin rolling out pilot projects across the country to support its green and low-carbon development.

Domestic security

In politics, questions remain over a high-level shake-up of Xi's hand-picked upper echelons that played out over the second half of last year.

On Friday, China named former naval commander Dong Jun as its new defense minister, months after his predecessor Li Shangfu was ousted without explanation. Also last week, nine military figures were removed from their positions in the country's rubber-stamp parliament – a largely symbolic, but politically significant role.

The sweeping shakeup is fueling speculation about a broader purge in the military, where Xi has already run a roughly decade-long drive to crackdown on corruption.

Meanwhile, Qin Gang was removed as foreign minister in July following only six months and replaced by Wang Yi, his predecessor in the role. Some analysts speculated at the time that Wang, who also holds a top foreign policy role within the party, may only be a temporary fix.

If, as reports suggest, the ousted ministers are under investigation, details may surface in the coming year.

Beijing is also expected to carry its emphasis on national security into 2024, which comes alongside Xi's efforts to expand party control across all aspects of society and guard against so-called foreign influence.

The Ministry of State Security recently stepped into the public eye, regularly releasing social media posts on security threats. Last year, the rubber-stamp legislature expanded China's sweeping anti-espionage law. This year it's poised to extend the law on guarding state secrets.

Analysts, investors and foreign companies in China spooked by raids on offices of international consultancy and due-diligence firms last year will be watching these developments closely – and looking for any signs of a recalibration that balances security with economic development, as opposed to swinging toward the former.

With visa-free rules for a handful of European and Southeast Asian countries implemented last year and requirements for tourist visas from the US recently relaxed, there's also a question of whether China can attract more travelers.

Meanwhile in Hong Kong, Chief Executive John Lee has pledged to enact a new security law in the city. Authorities there say it will "close gaps" in legislation Beijing imposed on Hong Kong in the wake of 2019 pro-democracy protests.

Critics say those rules have knocked out the city's civil society and culture of protest and free speech, but officials say it was crucial to restoring stability in the financial hub.

The existing law is also under the spotlight as two high-profile national security trials are moving through Hong Kong courts with verdicts expected in the coming months.

World view

China worked to smooth rocky relations with both the US and Europe in recent months – dialing down rhetoric and holding summits with US President Joe Biden and European Union leaders.

But deep-seated issues remain. Those include the US and China's tit-for-tat high-tech restrictions and European leaders' less-than-subtle hints that they could protect their markets if Beijing doesn't reign in state subsidies and do more to fix a wide trade gap. Despite concerns in European capitals and in Washington, China has also deepened ties with Russia, even as the Kremlin wages war in Ukraine.

The US will also be watching closely how China responds to Taiwan's elections later this month. A victory for Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) frontrunner Lai Ching-te would be sure to irk China's ruling Communist Party, which claims the democratic island as its territory despite never having controlled it. In his New Year address, Xi reiterated the point, saying: "China will surely be reunified."

Across the Pacific, the US presidential elections later this year are likely to put US-China relations under the microscope, especially as American officials have previously raised concerns over potential meddling from Chinese state actors – accusations Beijing denies.

Chinese officials are also keenly aware of the likelihood of ramped up, partisan anti-China rhetoric during the months-long US campaign season, which could set back hard-won civility following the Xi-Biden summit in November.

Xi, meanwhile, will no doubt look to strengthen China's role as a global power broker – welcoming new member countries into his nexus of international bodies like BRICS and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, and presenting the country as an alternative superpower to the US.

So far, China has had limited impact on brokering peace in Ukraine and Gaza. With Beijing rapidly expanding its footprint in the Middle East, however, it may look for ways to boost its profile as mediator – and hit back at the US approach to the conflicts to win international favor.

Closer to home, China is not expected to back down on asserting sovereignty across the South China Sea, where tensions have risen following a series of confrontations as Philippine vessels try to assert their own maritime claims.

The year 2024 will also be important for China's ambitious space program, with the planned launch of the Chang'e-6 lunar mission, which is slated to bring back samples from the far side of the moon, in what would be a scientific first.

— CNN's Laura He contributed to this report.

Around the region

Four South Asian countries are expected to head to the polls next year, in a grand test for democracy that will see nearly 2 billion people across Bangladesh, Pakistan, India and Sri Lanka cast their ballots from January through September.
North Korea will no longer seek reconciliation and reunification with South Korea, Kim Jong Un has declared, as his nation vowed to put three new military spy satellites into orbit in 2024.
South Korea, with the world's lowest birth rate, may soon find itself without enough troops to keep its military fully staffed as it deals with new threats in an increasingly tense Western Pacific region, analysts say.
Huawei, the tech giant which has been a flashpoint in the escalating rivalry between Washington and Beijing, says it is "back on track" with a strong 2023.
And several destinations across Asia appear on CNN's round-up of the best places to visit in 2024.