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March 2024 Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI) Down 1.2% from the Previous Month and Down 1.0% from the Same Month Last Year

Wednesday, May 8, 2024

BTS 21-24

March 2024 Freight Shipment Index Infpgraphic

The Freight Transportation Services Index (TSI), which is based on the amount of freight carried by the for-hire transportation industry, fell 1.2% in March from February, falling for the first month after a one month increase, according to the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS). From March 2023 to March 2024 the index fell 1.0% (Tables 1, 2, and 2A).

Line chart showing freight transportation services index in March 2021 through March 2024

The level of for-hire freight shipments in March measured by the Freight TSI (136.2) was 3.6% below the all-time high of 141.3 reached in August 2022 (Table 2A). BTS' TSI records begin in 2000. See historical TSI data.

The February index was revised to 137.9 from 138.1 in last month's release.

BTS will release the passenger and combined indexes for March next month, because air passenger travel continues to deviate from regular seasonal patterns, as it adjusts to the effects induced by the COVID-19 pandemic. The February passenger and combined indexes are available on the BTS website. Air freight and waterborne for March are also statistical estimates. Since air freight and waterborne make up a smaller part of the freight index, the freight TSI is being released as scheduled with the air freight and waterborne estimate included.

The Freight TSI measures the month-to-month changes in for-hire freight shipments by mode of transportation in tons and ton-miles, which are combined into one index. The index measures the output of the for-hire freight transportation industry and consists of data from for-hire trucking, rail, inland waterways, pipelines and air freight. The TSI is seasonally-adjusted to remove regular seasonal movement, which enables month-to-month comparisons.

Analysis: The Freight TSI decreased in March due to seasonally adjusted decreases in trucking, air freight, rail carload, rail intermodal, and water while pipeline grew.

The March decrease came in the context of mixed results for several other indicators. The Federal Reserve Board Industrial Production (IP) Index grew by 0.4% in March, reflecting increases of 2.0% in utilities and 0.5% in manufacturing, while mining declined by 1.4%. Housing starts were down 14.7% while personal income increased by 0.5%.

The Institute for Supply Management Manufacturing (ISM) index was up 2.5 points to 50.3, indicating growth in manufacturing, for the first time in 17 months. A reading above 50 indicates an expansion of U.S. manufacturing, while a reading below 50 indicates a contraction.

Although the March Passenger TSI is being withheld because of the previously cited difficulty of estimating airline passenger travel and other components, the February index is now being released. The index increased 1.4% from January to February. Seasonally adjusted transit, rail and air passenger all grew.

The Passenger TSI has now exceeded its level in March 2020 —the first month of the pandemic— for thirty-three months in a row but remains below its pre-pandemic level (February 2020) for the 48th consecutive month.

Trend: The March freight index decrease was the fifth in seven months, leaving the index 1.8% below its level in August 2023. It followed an increase in February, leaving the index 1.7% above its level in January 2024. The index increased 2.3% since August 2021. The March Freight TSI exceeds the pandemic low in April 2020 by 9.7%; the index increased month-over-month in 26 of the 47 months since that low.

For additional historical data, go to TSI data.

Index highs and lows: For-hire freight shipments in March 2024 (136.2) were 43.4% higher than the low in April 2009 during the recession (95.0). The March 2024 level was 3.6% below the historic peak (since 2000) reached in August 2022 (141.3).

Year to date: For-hire freight shipments measured by the index were down 1.4% in March compared to the end of 2023 (Table 3).

Long-term trend: For-hire freight shipments are down 0.6% in the five years from March 2019 and are up 13.4% in the 10 years from March 2014 (Table 5).

Same month of previous year: March 2024 for-hire freight shipments were down 1.0% from March 2023 (Tables 4, 5).

1st quarter changes: The freight TSI fell 1.4% in the 1st quarter (Table 10).

The TSI has three seasonally adjusted indexes that measure changes from the monthly average of the base year of 2000. The three indexes are freight shipments, passenger travel and a combined measure that merges the freight and passenger indexes. See Seasonally-Adjusted Transportation Data for numbers for individual modes. TSI includes data from 2000 to the present. Release of the April 2024 index is scheduled for June 12, 2024.

Revisions: Monthly data has changed from previous releases due to the use of concurrent seasonal analysis, which results in seasonal analysis factors changing as each month's data are added.

BTS research has shown a clear relationship between economic cycles and the Freight and Passenger Transportation Services Indexes. See a study of this relationship using smoothed and detrended TSI data. Researchers who wish to compare TSI over time with other economic indicators, can use the FRED database, which includes freight, passenger and combined TSI, and which makes it possible to easily graph TSI alongside the other series in that database. See TSI data on FRED.

For charts and discussion on the relationship of the TSI to the economy, see Transportation as an Economic Indicator: Transportation Services Index.

A BTS report explaining the TSI, Transportation Services Index and the Economy, is available for download.

Table A: Summary of Revisions to Freight TSI in Previous 12 Months

	Freight TSI
	Current release	Previous month's release	Percent change
Mar-23	137.6	137.5	0.07
Apr-23	136.4	136.3	0.07
May-23	137.1	137.1	0.00
Jun-23	137.1	137.1	0.00
Jul-23	138.4	138.4	0.00
Aug-23	138.7	138.7	0.00
Sep-23	138.6	138.7	-0.07
Oct-23	138.5	138.5	0.00
Nov-23	137.6	137.6	0.00
Dec-23	138.2	138.2	0.00
Jan-24	133.9	134.0	-0.07
Feb-24	137.9	138.1	-0.14

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
NOTE: The entire Freight TSI is revised monthly. Changes shown only for the previous 12 months.

Table 1: Freight Transportation Services Index since September 2023
Percent Change from Previous Month
(Seasonally Adjusted, Monthly Average of 2000 = 100)

	Freight
	Index	Percent change
September	138.6	-0.1
October	138.5	-0.1
November	137.6	-0.6
December	138.2	0.4
January	133.9	-3.1
February	137.9	3.0
March	136.2	-1.2

SOURCE: Bureau of Transportation Statistics. See Transportation Services Index for documentation, data and other background information.
NOTE: Percent changes based on numbers prior to rounding.

Table 1A: Annual High and Low Points in Freight Transportation Services Index, 2009-2024

Year	Month of peak	Value at peak	Month of low	Value at low
2019	August	141.2	December	136.0
2020	January	135.8	April	124.2
2021	December	136.7	February	132.5
2022	August	141.3	December	137.3
2023	February	139.8	April	136.4
2024	February	137.9	January	133.9