Welcome to Email News: What to make of a general's wild warning about war with China by 2025

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01.31.23

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by Zachary B. Wolf

: The latest

It's over. Covid is still here, but President Joe Biden intends to end the national and public health emergencies on May 11. Here's what goes away.

Activist short seller. A small New York firm takes aim at a massive Indian conglomerate. This is interesting.

Ultraprocessed foods. Eating more of these foods raises cancer risks, especially ovarian cancer. Study involved 197,000-plus people in the UK.

Kari Lake. The top election official in Arizona has requested an investigation of the former candidate for governor over a potential violation. Lake had published voter signatures on her Twitter account.

Internet fad. Is the "100 envelope challenge" a smart money move? CNN's Christine Romans does the math.

: A general's wild claim about war with China. Hold on

A memo from a top commander in the US Air Force that warns subordinates his "gut" tells him to be ready for war with China -- and not just in theory, but in two years -- is out of step with the rest of the US government, fueling Republican criticisms of President Joe Biden and giving China reason to claim the US is the aggressor in the region.

Is this general being serious, or is this like a scene out of "Dr. Strangelove"?

Gen. Michael Minihan's memo to subordinates, first reported by NBC News, was shocking because its over-the-top language and hard deadline are out of step with the much more diplomatic, public-facing language coming out of the White House, the State Department and pretty much anywhere else of military or diplomatic authority.

"I hope I am wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025," writes Minihan, the four-star general who oversees the Air Mobility Command, which controls transport and refueling aircraft.

He says the upcoming 2024 presidential election in the democratic, self-governing island of Taiwan could provoke China, and the upcoming presidential election in the US could distract Americans from the threat. China views Taiwan as part of its territory and the ruling Chinese Communist Party has long vowed to use force if necessary for "reunification."

Minihan asks his commanders to report on their plans for a war with China by the end of February and encourages his personnel to use target practice to prepare for the challenge with "unrepentant lethality."

The Pentagon and White House played down the memo and made clear that war with China is not preordained or even likely.

"The president believes it shouldn't evolve into conflict," John Kirby, the coordinator for strategic communications at the National Security Council, told CNN's Wolf Blitzer on Monday. "There's no reason for the bilateral relationship -- the most consequential bilateral relationship in the world -- to erupt into some kind of conflict. We do believe and the president has made clear that we are in a competition with China, a competition that he believes the United States is well poised to win."

Domestic political focus on China

Minihan's warning is getting a lot of attention in conservative media outlets, which are pushing for a major increase in defense spending, particularly to build up the US Navy to counter China.

A Wall Street Journal editorial, for example, hailed Minihan as a truth teller.

The House Foreign Affairs Committee chairman, Rep. Michael McCaul of Texas, said on "Fox News Sunday" he hopes Minihan is wrong. "I think he's right, though, unfortunately."

McCaul also took a political shot at Biden over his decision to remove US troops from Afghanistan.

"We have to be prepared for this," McCaul said. "It could happen, I think as long as Biden is in office projecting weakness."

Republicans are looking to make China a focus after taking control of the House of Representatives and created a new congressional committee to focus on threats posed to the US by China. After a report that House Speaker Kevin McCarthy was planning to follow in former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's footsteps and visit Taiwan, a Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson urged against US officials interacting with Taiwan, according to The Hill.

: War is not at all inevitable

The former Defense Secretary Mark Esper, who worked for former President Donald Trump, said there is an important line between being prepared for the possibility of war and predicting one will definitely occur.

"On one hand, I think it's very important to drive a sense of urgency. I applaud him for that. He's an aggressive commander," Esper told CNN's Kate Bolduan on Monday, referring to Minihan's memo. "On the other hand, I would not paint it as inevitable that we will be in war, and I hope we will do everything we can to deter a conflict."

The military term is that China is a "pacing threat," meaning its military is making strategic strides against the US. In fact, China's navy has surpassed the US Navy in fleet size, and some experts have warned that an American technological advantage may not be enough to maintain superiority, particularly when the US is committing many of its munitions to Ukraine.

Global positioning

The US is certainly doing what it can to appear ready for China and to make the US economy more independent from China's.

When American politicians like Biden talk about this current time period as an era in which democracies must stand up to autocracies, he's largely talking about China.

Secretary of State Antony Blinken said last year that the US believes China has sped up its plans to claim Taiwan. Blinken travels to China this weekend to discuss a range of issues with Chinese officials.

Biden has angered the Chinese government by repeatedly saying the quiet part of US foreign policy out loud -- that the US would respond if China was to move militarily against Taiwan.

Strategic moves

There are other geopolitical maneuverings in recent months that speak to tension between the US and China.

The US is beefing up its presence in the Pacific with a new military base -- its first in 70 years -- on the island of Guam.

There is a new agreement between the US and Japan that will redesignate US Marines stationed on Japan, allowing them to fire anti-ship missiles.

Plus, the US military is looking to expand its access to bases in the Philippines, something that is drawing US Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin to that country this week.

Writing about the Marines on the southern Japanese island of Okinawa, CNN's team has reported that the Pentagon is certainly aiming to be ready for any conflict with China -- noting "the Pentagon's desire to shift from the wars of the past in the Middle East to the region of the future in the Indo-Pacific. The change comes as simulated war games from a prominent Washington think tank found that Japan, and Okinawa in particular, would play a critical role in a military conflict with China, providing the United States with forward deployment and basing options."

Previous warnings about China's timetable

Warnings about the speed with which China wants to supplant the US as the dominant world power are not new.

Then-Adm. Philip Davidson, who at the time was in charge of US Indo-Pacific Command, told lawmakers on Capitol Hill in March 2021 that China could be aiming to disrupt the "rules-based international order" by 2050 or sooner and could pose a direct threat to Taiwan even earlier, by 2027.

So it is certainly true that multiple top US military officials worry China could move against Taiwan in the coming years. The US government and military are clearly responding to China with their actions, but the official word is nowhere near Minihan's level of urgency or certainty.

: What did you think of today's newsletter?

There was enough support for both "The latest" section at the top and the in-depth analysis that follows, so our current plan is to keep the newsletter format as is.

Today's edition on China followed an edition on Russia's war on Ukraine. That's a lot of war for one week. Perhaps we will move back to the US on Wednesday.

Send your feedback to what.matters@cnn.com.