Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good Seeing this newsletter as a forward? Subscribe here. February 1, 2023 |
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What Happened to That Recession? |
So, where'd that recession go?
Despite talk in recent months of an economic downturn—in particular, of an expected "hard landing," to be caused by the Federal Reserve's inflation-fighting interest-rate hikes—US GDP has grown in the last two quarters. Upon releasing its latest global economic outlook on Monday, the International Monetary Fund noted it's "less gloomy" than October's forecast. Worldwide, inflation is expected to peak in the next two years, and GDP to grow by 2.9% in 2023, per the IMF.
Many Americans may fail to appreciate the rosier side of things, New York Times columnist Paul Krugman argues: "Imagine that your picture of the U.S. economy came entirely from headlines and cable news chyrons. Would you know that real gross domestic product has risen 6.7 percent under President Biden, that America gained 4.5 million jobs in 2022 and that inflation over the past six months, which was indeed very high last winter, was less than 2 percent at an annual rate?"
Will broad trends stay positive? One sector to watch is housing, former US Treasury official and current portfolio manager Stephen Miran tells The New Statesman's Will Dunn. Housing "starts"—initiations of new construction projects—fell last year, and when current building is finished, layoffs could ensue, Miran suggests. Unless they don't, that is, for instance if construction firms hold on to employees over labor-market concerns. Still, as the Federal Reserve's open-markets committee meets today and tomorrow to discuss interest rates, some observers think it's time to slow or stop the hikes. At Project Syndicate, Joseph Stiglitz offers a version of the so-called "team transitory" argument we have heard about this wave of inflation since its arrival: that prices have risen mostly due to specific global shocks, not stimulus spending, and interest-rate hikes were never the best answer. Also at Project Syndicate, Lucrezia Reichlin argues similarly that further rate hikes would do lasting economic damage, more than they would if excess demand were the inflationary "culprit." |
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In Case You Missed It: From Sunday's GPS |
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The Middle East's 'Shadow War' |
After a reported drone strike on an Iranian military facility on Sunday, speculation about responsibility immediately turned to Israel. It's yet another example of "the shadow wars that are part of the Middle East," Pierre Haski writes for France Inter (translated into English by WorldCrunch). In recent years, Israeli strikes on Iran have attracted much shadow-war attention.
This strike came after the International Atomic Energy Agency announced last week that Iran has enough fissile material to build "several" nuclear weapons (though it hasn't built one yet and would need to enrich that material further, to do so). Haski notes a relevant question: Did the facility have anything to do with Iran's nuclear program? So far, the answer is not known.
At the Atlantic Council, Iran expert (and recent GPS guest) Holly Dagres writes that the attack "is yet another great embarrassment for the security apparatus of the Islamic Republic and demonstrates its incompetence—it cannot protect its facilities but can gun down" citizens protesting against the regime. |
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As the Global Briefing noted on Friday, last week gave us reasons to worry that heightened Israeli–Palestinian conflict is brewing. At Le Monde, Clothilde Mraffko lists recent attacks and deaths that have fed outrage, including the massacre of seven near a synagogue on Friday. Writing for The Spectator, the New Lines Institute's James Snell suggests a third intifada, or Palestinian uprising, is dangerously close to emerging.
"More tension, more violence, and more competition from both Israeli political parties and terror groups to be the toughest and to have the most decisive reactions, looms," Snell writes. "This is a dangerous moment for the civilian population of several countries as a result. And we simply don't know where it will go. Only that things will get worse, as if by law of nature." |
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Could Ukraine Retake Crimea? |
In recent months, several commentators have suggested Ukraine's forces can push back Russia's invading army—including to retake the Crimean Peninsula, which Russia seized in 2014.
In a Foreign Policy op-ed, Michael Allen argues retaking Crimea is a noble goal, worthy of Western support, in that it would deny Russia a launching pad for further attacks on Ukraine, avoid "rewarding" President Vladimir Putin's aggression and shore up the rules-based world order. In an Economist op-ed, retired US Army Lt. Gen. Ben Hodges makes a similar case, adding that holding Crimea allows Russia to inhibit Ukrainian shipping. With the right Western weaponry, Hodges argues, Ukraine can retake the peninsula.
"The most important reason why Ukraine should not negotiate with Russia is that it may now have a chance to win back Crimea," Hodges writes. "We've learned from this past year that (Ukrainian) precision can defeat Russian heft with appropriate weaponry and smart timing. The West should help with both." |
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Italy's Government, in Context |
Italy's election last fall of a far-right governing coalition, led by Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, prompted much consternation in the Western world, especially given echoes of fascism heard in various elements of Meloni's party (its insignia, for instance). In the current issue of the Journal of Democracy, Erik Jones offers a mixed assessment of the current government's politics: Meloni has appeared to sand down some edges of her opposition to allowing sea-faring migrants into Italy, Jones writes, while presenting a social conservatism that doesn't always track with her personal life, including vis-à-vis gender roles.
Jones traces the recent evolution of Italian politics, placing Meloni's coalition in that context while offering this summary impression: "Despite their far-right origins, Meloni and her government appear both reasonable and accommodating, and, although it is still early, they seem likely to last longer in office than any of her recent predecessors. The new right-wing government is popular, scary, and competent, all at the same time. This is just one of the ways that Italian democracy inspires cognitive dissonance." |
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