Before we begin, I wanted to alert you to this news that broke overnight. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, the first woman to represent California in the Senate, died at 90.
In the British monarchy, it used to be said that the queen's job was to give birth to two sons — an heir and a spare.
In the Republican campaign, the seven candidates in Wednesday's debate were all running to be the spare.
That's an odd aspiration — to be the person available in case the preferred person isn't. It lends almost everything the candidates do an inescapable air of being not quite real. At the debate, the familiar trappings were present — red, white and blue bunting, lights, cameras, hordes of press, hangers-on and opposition spokespeople, including Gov. Gavin Newsom — but the tension of a nomination up for grabs was notably absent.
Donald Trump decided before the first debate of the season to skip appearing on stage with the pretenders to his throne. His poll standing among Republican voters, already high, went higher. So after the second debate, he did what he typically does and doubled down. His campaign issued a statement calling on the Republican National Committee to cancel the remaining debates, labeling them "boring and inconsequential" and predicting that "nothing that was said will change the dynamics of the primary contest."
Self-serving, of course. But probably true.
The RNC likely won't heed Trump's call. They've already set out qualifying criteria for a third debate to be held early in November. The planned location, Miami, was reportedly chosen in an effort — almost surely futile — to entice Trump to join.
AdImpact, a leading data firm, estimates that around 11 million people watched the latest debate, down from 14 million who watched the first debate. Much to the dismay of some party leaders and major donors, there's as yet no evidence that a third debate will do what the first two notably have not — turn Trump's renomination walk into an actual contest.
What we've learned about the candidates so far
There's one central reason that none of Trump's rivals has gained traction, and it doesn't have much to do with their ability as candidates or the positions they've taken. What's done them all in is Republican perceptions of President Biden's weakness.
Back in December and January, when memories of a disappointing November midterm election still stung Republicans, many in the party worried about Trump's unpopularity. Interest in an alternative ran high, much to the benefit of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis.
But as the polls continue to show Trump and Biden in a close race, a majority of Republican voters have lost their fear that Trump would lose and, along with it, interest in an alternative.
Polls 14 months ahead of an election have almost no ability to predict outcomes, so about the most that anyone can know now is that in a closely divided country, a close election is a good bet.
But in politics, perception shapes reality, and right now, the perception of Biden as weak has pushed the Republican debates to the edge of irrelevance.
That being said, the debates have told us several things about the individual candidates as well as the shape of the party.
Roughly speaking, the field can be divided in three.
The traditionalists
One group contains three relatively traditional, conservative Republicans of the sort that ran the party from President Reagan's election in 1980 until Trump's nomination in 2016 — former Vice President Mike Pence and two former governors, Nikki Haley of South Carolina and Chris Christie of New Jersey.
The three differ in several respects: Pence represents the social conservative wing of Reagan's coalition and has made a national abortion ban a top priority. On Wednesday, he added a call to ban gender-affirming medical care for transgender Americans. Haley, more of a fiscal conservative, has tried to soft-peddle the abortion issue. She has chided Trump for the huge increase in the federal debt that took place during his tenure. Christie represents the Northeastern, blue-collar wing of Reaganism — tough on crime, opposed to public employee unions, and more moderate on culture-war issues.
All three, however, have stuck with Reaganite orthodoxy on foreign policy — deeply suspicious of Russia, in favor of a leading U.S. role in NATO and strongly backing U.S. aid to Ukraine.
The MAGA-ites
On the other side, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and Vivek Ramaswamy, the multimillionaire businessman, represent the party's now-dominant Trump wing. That comes through in their rhetorical styles, full of denunciations of "wokeness" and "elites," their reticence about criticizing Trump, a tendency toward performative statements rather than detailed policy proposals and their foreign-policy remarks, which focus on perceived threats from China and are notably warmer toward Russia.
The... less relevant
Of the remaining two candidates, North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum has mostly tried to introduce himself and has such a low level of support that he probably won't qualify for the third debate. Sen. Tim Scott of South Carolina is also at risk of not qualifying — he hasn't hit the threshold of 4% in a national poll — although his more prominent performance Wednesday night might boost him over the bar. He has tried to maintain ties to the Trumpist wing of the party while siding with the traditionalists on some issues, notably Ukraine.
The big Ukraine divide
Russia's invasion of its neighbor has generated some of the most heated exchanges in the first and second debates. It's an issue that has become steadily more divisive among Republicans.
About three hours before the debate started, the House voted on a measure proposed by Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), who is among Trump's most fervent backers, which would have blocked further security aid to Ukraine. It lost, 93-339, but all 93 votes in favor came from Republicans, and the total was 25 votes more than Gaetz got when he proposed a similar measure in July.
That anti-Ukraine vote could grow. The majority of Republican members of Congress remain in the Reaganite wing of the party on national security issues, but the Trump position has clearly taken hold among the rank and file. In a poll released this week by YouGov and the Economist magazine, 60% of Republicans said they wanted aid to Ukraine cut, and 29% said aid should be eliminated entirely.
And, of course, that's the position Trump backs. The former president has avoided spelling out his views in detail, but has made clear his sympathy with Russian President Vladimir Putin and hostility toward Kyiv.
Whatever the candidates may say in their debates, the fact that Trump remains the overwhelming favorite for renomination means that opposition to Ukraine aid will soon be the official Republican Party stance.
The candidate debates may not be relevant, but both at home and abroad, the stakes could not be higher.
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L.A. Times debate coverage
If you missed the debate or want a refresher, here are Noah Bierman's five takeaways from Wednesday night's Republican presidential debate
The Republican debate has an unplanned theme: This isn't Ronald Reagan's party anymore
This surely wasn't the plan, but by placing their second candidate debate at the Ronald Reagan Presidential Library, Republican officials put a spotlight on how far their party has moved from positions that made the 40th president a conservative icon, Seema Mehta and I wrote.
Trump skipped the GOP presidential debate in Simi Valley, but his supporters showed up anyway
Hours before the debate was set to begin, hundreds of Trump supporters lined the street leading to the Reagan library, waving flags and using megaphones to fill the air with chants of "Trump 2024" and "Impeach Biden," at times laced with a few expletives, Christian Martinez reported.
Up the road from the GOP debate, Republican women wonder if one of their own can beat Trump
The members of the Simi Valley & Moorpark Republican Women Federation, mostly white women over 50, munched chicken tenders and sipped beers beneath the twinkling string lights at the Simi Hills Golf Course bar, alternately cheering and jeering as their favorite and least favorite candidates spoke up, Faith Pinho reported.
As GOP presidential candidates debate, Democrats unleash a top attack dog: Gov. Gavin Newsom
Newsom has largely served as a cheerleader on the sidelines of Biden's reelection bid this year, fawning over his record in the White House to Democratic donors and slapping down criticism about the president's age on the national news. On Wednesday, Newsom graduated to the starting lineup, Taryn Luna and Benjamin Oreskes wrote.
Biden raises campaign cash in the Bay Area as GOP hopefuls gather in Simi Valley
Biden was busy in the San Francisco Bay Area collecting campaign checks and painting the election as a choice between MAGA chaos and functioning government, Hannah Wiley reported.
The latest from the campaign trail
Biden's talking democracy. But Trump's winning on the economy
Biden believes he can win a referendum on Trump's fitness for office. But the history of modern elections suggests that voters' doubts about the economy could overpower any fears they may have about a threat to democracy, Noah Bierman reported.
The latest from Washington
U.S. will allow Israeli travelers into the country without visas
The United States has agreed to admit Israel into the elite category of countries whose citizens can travel to the U.S. without visas, despite questions over whether Israel meets a core U.S. requirement for the special status: that Israel allow Palestinian Americans to travel freely in its territory, Tracy Wilkinson reported.
The latest from California
New law allows doctors living in 'hostile' red states to get abortion training in California
The new California law comes as medical professionals in red states could face jail time for providing abortion care, and opportunities for abortion training are disappearing for obstetrician-gynecologists in places like Texas, where the procedure is banned, Mackenzie Mays reported.
Newsom signs gun laws that add new taxes and limit where owners can carry firearms
Newsom said California would resist legal efforts to dismantle its firearms laws and maintain its position as a national gun-control leader, but called for greater federal action. "We have a responsibility to do more and continue to lead in that conversation," Newsom said. "I think we need to be screaming louder about this," Hannah Wiley wrote.
Column: California lawmaker motivated by text from daughter during school shooting threat
Freshman Sen. Catherine Blakespear was at the state Capitol in the Senate chamber when her ninth-grade daughter, Ava, texted. She was at school hiding under a desk. Ava was trying to protect herself during a mass shooting threat at her public high school in Encinitas, a picturesque beach town north of San Diego. Blakespear, a Democrat who represents a very competitive district, briefly mentioned this scary story Tuesday at a Sacramento news conference where Newsom signed 23 bills aimed at reducing gun violence. Two of the measures were Blakespear's, George Skelton wrote in his column.
Frequent GOP L.A. congressional candidate charged with misusing campaign funds
Omar Navarro, a favorite of former Trump's MAGA movement who repeatedly challenged Democrat Maxine Waters for her congressional seat, was indicted Wednesday on 43 counts of misusing campaign funds, including funneling tens of thousands of dollars in campaign donations back to himself through friends and family, Sarah Wire reported.
Daniel Lurie, philanthropist and Levi Strauss heir, enters San Francisco mayor's race
Daniel Lurie, a philanthropist and heir to the Levi Strauss & Co. fortune, announced his candidacy for San Francisco mayor this week, seeking to mobilize voters agitated by issues such as homelessness, crime and public drug use. Lurie is casting himself as an outsider who can bring new leadership and fresh ideas to the challenging issues San Francisco faces, Grace Toohey reported.
State schools Supt. Tony Thurmond announces 2026 bid for California governor
Thurmond became the latest Democrat to launch a campaign in a race that could draw a large field of contenders as Newsom is forced out of office by term limits, Mays reported.
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