Welcome to Email News: Fareed: Russia’s Problem Isn’t the War, or the Rebellion

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Insights, analysis and must reads from CNN's Fareed Zakaria and the Global Public Square team, compiled by Global Briefing editor Chris Good

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June 30, 2023

Fareed: Russia's Problem Isn't the War, or the Rebellion

All eyes have turned to Russia this week, after Wagner private military group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin mounted a brief rebellion. Attention has been fixed on Russia's faltering war on Ukraine since early last year.

But Fareed writes in his latest Washington Post column that Russia's problems run deeper. For a 15-year-old boy, life expectancy in Russia is the same as in Haiti, Fareed writes; political economist Nicholas Eberstadt "points out that shockingly, Russia is a country with 'First World' education levels and 'Fourth World' mortality rates for its working age population." Russia "performs miserably in the knowledge economy" and lags in patents, Fareed writes; its government is notoriously corrupt and anti-modern.

"What does this all add up to?" Fareed asks. "I am not sure. But it's fair to say that Russia's biggest problem is not that it is losing the Ukraine war but rather that it is losing the 21st century."

Prigozhin and the People: How the Rebellion Will Resonate

Yevgeny Prigozhin's brief rebellion will have consequences for Russian President Vladimir Putin and his government: As Christian Esch writes for Der Spiegel, it could lead to more repression inside Russia and "new orgies of violence" beyond its borders.

But how will it resonate among the Russian people? Quoting unnamed Muscovites, The Moscow Times reports a curious mix of feelings: shock at the mutiny, contempt for Prigozhin, and wishes that his rebellion might've gone further.

In an interview with CNN Opinion, Jade McGlynn—author of the new book "Russia's War," which delves deeply into Russian public opinion—says that "in the geographically European part of Russia, there's clearly a division of opinion on whether or not this (rebellion) was a good idea, to put it mildly." There's also an understanding, McGlynn says, of the dissatisfaction with Russia's military leadership that seemed to motivate Prigozhin and his Wagner mercenary fighters.

As for what Russian public sentiments Prigozhin does or can tap into, aside from sympathy with that discontent, McGlynn says "Prigozhin has cultivated this persona" of a tough guy and a common man. "But it's funny, because it also carries many echoes of Putin's own image-making."

France's Unrest and the 'Taboo' of Race

Yet again, France has been rocked by violent protests—this time in response to the police killing, during a traffic stop in a Paris suburb, of a 17-year-old boy named Nahel, reportedly of Algerian descent.

Sociologist Fabien Truong tells Le Monde that those taking to the streets have been "boys of the same age as Nahel, who react in an intimate and violent way for one simple reason: His death could have been theirs. … Every teenager in these neighborhoods has memories of negative altercations and clashes with the police. Repeated, unpleasant identity checks just downstairs from one's home are humiliating, stressful, and—in the long run—breed a deep resentment."

Known as lower-income than cities, France's "suburbs" or "banlieues" carry the opposite connotation as in the US. Calling the unrest an expression of "the rage at being ignored," The Guardian writes in an editorial: "Many in the banlieues are afraid both for the safety of their children at the hands of police, and of the unrest. They are also concerned about how Marine Le Pen and the far right in general may exploit events."

At CNN Opinion, Keith Magee writes of France's complicated relationship with race and racism: "(T)he color of Nahel's skin … has been almost entirely ignored in the initial barrage of domestic news reports and commentary. … (I)n France, despite a wave of anti-racism protests in 2020 inspired by the murder of George Floyd, the issue of race remains largely taboo. Discussions about race that happen every day in the US rarely occur there, at least in the official discourse. … We may never know for certain whether Nahel's race was a factor in his killing. But surely, if it is taboo to even ask the question, something is very wrong."

With Bolsonaro Banned Until 2030, What's Next for Brazil and Its Populist Right?

Finding former President Jair Bolsonaro abused his power to sow doubts about Brazil's election system during last year's campaign, which he lost to challenger Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil's highest electoral court has barred Bolsonaro from seeking political office until 2030.

Where does that leave Brazil's populist right, which Bolsonaro championed? Anticipating the decision at Americas Quarterly, political scientist and far-right watcher Guilherme Casarões writes that Bolsonaro could weigh on the 2024 elections, bolsonarismo persists in Brazil, and the future of the populist right is yet to be determined. "While barring Bolsonaro from running is a good start," Casarões opines, "safeguarding democracy and civility will require national reconciliation efforts that are still far ahead."