BTS Statistics Release: 3rd-Quarter 2017 Air Fare Data

Transportation.Gov web banner

Having trouble viewing this email? View it as a Web page.

Bookmark and Share

BTS 05-18

Tuesday, January 16, 2018

BTS Contact: David Smallen

Tel: 202-366-5568

david.smallen@dot.gov

 

BTS Statistics Release: 3rd-Quarter 2017 Air Fare Data

 

 

 

The average domestic air fare decreased to $336 in the third quarter of 2017, the lowest inflation-adjusted quarterly fare in 23 years of air fare records (Table 1), the U.S. Department of Transportation's Bureau of Transportation Statistics (BTS) reported today. The previous low quarter since BTS began collecting air fare data in 1995 was $346 in the second quarter of 2009.

 

 Fig1.1

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares, Origin and Destination Survey

 

 

BTS reports average fares based on domestic itinerary fares. Itinerary fares consist of round-trip fares, unless the customer does not purchase a return trip. In that case, the one-way fare is included. One-way trips accounted for 39 percent of fares calculated for the third quarter of 2017. The average domestic one-way air fare was $241 in the third quarter of 2017, while the average round-trip air fare was $409. Fares are based on the total ticket value, which consists of the price charged by the airlines plus any additional taxes and fees levied by an outside entity at the time of purchase. Fares include only the price paid at the time of the ticket purchase and do not include fees for optional services, such as baggage fees. Averages do not include frequent-flyer or "zero fares." Constant 2017 dollars are used for inflation adjustment.

 

Inflation-Adjusted Air Fares

The third-quarter fare of $336 was down 5.7 percent from the third quarter of 2016, adjusted for inflation and down 5.6 percent from the second quarter of 2017. The third-quarter 2017 fare was down 30.2 percent from the average fare of $481 in 2000, the highest inflation-adjusted third quarter average fare on record. Since 1995, inflation-adjusted fares declined 28.5 percent (Table 1). See BTS Air Fare web page for historical data.

 

In recent years, airlines have obtained additional revenue from fees charged to passengers, as well as from other sources. U.S. passenger airlines collected 75.0 percent of their total revenue from passenger fares during the third quarter of 2017, down from 87.6 percent in 1995 (Figure 1, Table 2).

 

Quarter-to-Quarter Change

Average fares fell 5.6 percent from $356 in the second quarter of 2017 to $336 in the third quarter of 2017, the first quarter-to-quarter decrease since the third quarter of 2016. After the third quarter of 2016, fares rose for three consecutive quarters – a total of 3.5 percent – before declining in the third quarter of 2017 (Table 3).

 

Unadjusted Air Fares

The $336 third-quarter 2017 average fare was down 3.8 percent from the third quarter 2016 fare of $349, dropping to the lowest third-quarter fare since $336 in 2010. The third quarter 2017 fare was down 14.3 percent from the fare of $392 in the third quarter of 2014, which was the highest average fare for any third quarter since 1995. Since 1995, unadjusted fares rose 14.9 percent compared to a 60.7 percent increase in overall consumer prices (Table 4).

 

Third quarter 2017 fares of $336 were down 5.6 percent, from the second-quarter 2017 fares of $356, the first quarter-to-quarter decrease since the third quarter of 2016 (Table 3). The third quarter 2017 average fare was down 2.4 percent from the third quarter of 2016 ($344). Over two years, the third quarter 2017 fare was down 9.7 percent from the third quarter of 2015 ($372) (Table 5). See BTS Air Fare web page for historical data.

 

Fares by Airport

 

 

 Fig2.1

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares, Origin and Destination Survey

 

Of airports grouped by the number of originating passengers in the third quarter of 2017, the seven airports with between 50,000 and 99,999 originating passengers had the highest average fares ($367). The six airports with 1.5 to 1.99 million originating passengers had the lowest average fares of any group ($309) (Table 6).

 

Tables listing the airports by group can be found on the BTS Air Fare web page.

 

For additional data, see Top 100 Airports or All Airports. Since average fares are based on the Origin and Destination Survey 10 percent ticket sample, averages for airports with smaller samples may be less reliable. Fares for Alaska, Hawaii and Puerto Rico airports are not included in rankings but are available on the web page. Fourth Quarter 2017 average fare data will be released April 17.

 

Note: Results for average fares are based on the BTS Origin & Destination Survey, a 10 percent sample of airline tickets used during the quarter. For results based on all itinerary fares, the standard error is 0.29. The 90 percent confidence interval ranges from $335.35 to $336.30. For results based on round-trip fares, the standard error is 0.36. The 90 percent confidence interval ranges from $409.08 to $410.25. For results based on one-way fares, the standard error is 0.34. The 90 percent confidence interval ranges from $240.91 to $242.04.

 

 

 

Table 1. 3rd Quarter Average Fare 1995-2017, Adjusted for Inflation

Year

3Q Average Fare in constant 2017 dollars ($)

Year-to-Year Percent Change in Average Fare (3Q to 3Q) (%)

Cumulative Percent Change in Average Fare (3Q 1995 to 3Q of each year) (%)

Percent Change in Average Fare to 3rd Quarter 2017 (%)

1995

470

   

-28.5

1996

432

-8.0

-8.0

-22.2

1997

439

1.6

-6.6

-23.5

1998

465

6.0

-1.0

-27.8

1999

476

2.3

1.3

-29.4

2000

481

1.1

2.5

-30.2

2001

443

-7.9

-5.6

-24.2

2002

425

-4.1

-9.5

-21.0

2003

420

-1.2

-10.6

-20.0

2004

396

-5.7

-15.7

-15.1

2005

384

-3.1

-18.3

-12.4

2006

397

3.5

-15.5

-15.4

2007

384

-3.3

-18.3

-12.5

2008

388

1.1

-17.4

-13.5

2009

353

-8.9

-24.7

-5.0

2010

378

7.0

-19.4

-11.2

2011

395

4.3

-15.9

-14.9

2012

400

1.3

-14.9

-16.0

2013

401

0.4

-14.5

-16.3

2014

404

0.7

-13.9

-16.9

2015

389

-3.9

-17.2

-13.6

2016

356

-8.4

-24.2

-5.7

2017

336

-5.7

-28.5

0.0

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey

Note: Percent change based on unrounded numbers

 

 

Table 2. Passenger Airline Revenue from Fares 1990-2017

Year

Revenue from Passenger Fares as Percent of Total Scheduled Passenger Airline Operating Revenue* (%)

1990

88.5

1995

87.6

2000

88.9

2001

87.8

2002

87.1

2003

84.9

2004

80.6

2005

78.4

2006

77.6

2007

77.7

2008

75.9

2009

73.7

2010

74.8

2011

74.6

2012

74.1

2013

74.6

2014

74.8

2015

74.7

2016

74.1

2017 (1Q)

74.0

2017 (2Q)

75.0

2017 (3Q)

75.0

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, P-1.2

* From Schedule P-1.2: Passenger Revenue (Fares) (Acct 3901) as a percentage of Total Operating Revenues (4999).

 

 

Table 3. Inflation-Adjusted Average Domestic Airline Fares by Quarter

Average Fare and Percent Change by Quarter

Quarter/Year

Average Domestic Fare (2017$)

Average Fare in constant 2017 dollars ($)

Quarter-to-Quarter Percent Change in Average Fare (%)

3Q 2015

383

-3.9

4Q 2015

376

-2.0

1Q 2016

374

-0.4

2Q 2016

359

-4.0

3Q 2016

344

-4.1

4Q 2016*

347

0.8

1Q 2017*

352

1.5

2Q 2017*

356

1.2

3Q 2017*

336

-5.6

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey

Note: Percent change based on unrounded numbers

* Fares for the most recent four quarters are in current dollars, not adjusted for inflation.

 

 

Table 4. Unadjusted 3rd Quarter Average Fares, 1995-2017

Year

Average Fare in current dollars ($)

Year-to-Year Percent Change in Average Fare (3Q to 3Q) (%)

Cumulative Percent Change in Average Fare (3Q 1995 to 3Q of each year) (%)

Inflation Rate from 1995 (Sep 1995 to Sep of each year)*

 
 

1995

292

N/A

N/A

N/A

 

1996

277

-5.3

-5.3

2.9

 

1997

287

3.8

-1.7

5.2

 

1998

309

7.6

5.8

6.9

 

1999

324

4.7

10.8

9.4

 

2000

339

4.7

16.0

13.2

 

2001

321

-5.4

9.7

16.3

 

2002

312

-2.6

6.9

18.1

 

2003

315

1.0

7.9

20.7

 

2004

305

-3.2

4.5

24.0

 

2005

307

0.6

5.2

28.8

 

2006

329

6.9

12.4

33.1

 

2007

325

-1.0

11.3

36.2

 

2008

346

6.5

18.5

43.4

 

2009

310

-10.4

6.2

41.1

 

2010

336

8.3

15.0

42.8

 

2011

364

8.3

24.5

48.1

 

2012

375

3.0

28.3

50.7

 

2013

382

1.9

30.7

53.0

 

2014

392

2.5

34.1

55.7

 

2015

377

-3.8

29.0

55.9

 

2016

349

-7.4

19.5

57.6

 

2017

336

-3.8

14.9

60.7

 

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey

Note: Percent change based on unrounded numbers

 

 

Table 5. Unadjusted Average Domestic Airline Fares by Quarter

Average Fare and Percent Change by Quarter

Quarter/Year

Average Domestic Fare (current$)

Average Fare in current dollars ($)

Quarter-to-Quarter Percent Change in Average Fare (%)

3Q 2015

372

-3.7

4Q 2015

363

-2.5

1Q 2016

361

-0.4

2Q 2016

351

-2.9

3Q 2016

344

-1.9

4Q 2016

347

0.8

1Q 2017

352

1.5

2Q 2017

356

1.2

3Q 2017

336

-5.6

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey

Note: Percent change based on unrounded numbers 

 

 

Table 6. Fares at Airports Grouped by Originating Passengers

Top 100 Airports* Based on 3Q2017 U.S. Originating Domestic Passengers

Airport Groups based on 3Q 2017 Originating Passengers

Average Fare 3rd Quarter 2017 ($)

Percent of Total Passengers

2 million+

327

26

1.5-1.99 million

309

13

1.0-1.49 million

329

15

500-999,000

329

23

100-499,000

360

13

50-99,999

367

1

Average Fare at Top 100 Airports

330

91

Average Fare at All Airports

336

100

 

Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics, BTS Air Fares and Origin and Destination Survey

* Not including Alaska, Hawaii or Puerto Rico


U.S. Department of Transportation | 1200 New Jersey Avenue, SE | Washington DC 20590 | 202-385-HELP (4357) GovDelivery logo

No comments:

Post a Comment